Workspace

Monte Carlo

Assess uncertainty, probability ranges, and downside exposure from the current scenario.

Workflow step 4 of 8FScenario workspace

Workspace

Monte Carlo

Current route

Scenario Summary

Monte Carlo reads the same shared scenario used by Core Analysis. Assumptions stay read-only here so the workflow remains anchored to Scenario Setup.

Scenario source: Scenario SetupRead-only on this pageComplete Scenario Setup firstCore context optional

Project

Not set

Location

n/a

Frequency

monthly

Analysis Years

n/a

Capex

n/a

Discount Rate

n/a

Debt

Disabled

Deterministic Core

Optional

Shared Source Context

The current scenario, timing, financing, and decision settings come from the shared workflow state. To change assumptions, return to Scenario Setup.

Prompt present: NoScenario present: NoSession source: n/aLast updated: n/a

A deterministic Core run is not required first. Monte Carlo will run directly from the current Scenario Setup state.

Blocking issues

Analysis years must be greater than 0.

Construction periods must be 0 or greater.

COD period must be 0 or greater.

Discount rate must be entered in decimal form between 0 and 1.

Total capex must be greater than 0.

Annual revenue must be 0 or greater.

Annual opex must be 0 or greater.

Run Monte Carlo

Compact run control for the current shared scenario.

Waiting on Scenario Setup
Current scenario at click timeIteration cap: 2000Existing request field: `mc_config.n_sims`Variation field: `mc_config.variation`

Monte Carlo Drivers

Enable or disable backend-supported uncertainty drivers for the active Next.js workflow.

Run Status

Scenario not ready

Latest Monte Carlo Run

No run yet

Latest Core Reference

None

Monte Carlo stays idle until Scenario Setup is complete. Fix the blocking issues listed below, then run explicitly.

Monte Carlo KPIs

Headline cards for central outcomes, downside probabilities, and run scale will appear here after the current shared scenario is run through Monte Carlo.

Run Monte Carlo to populate this section from the current shared scenario.

Risk Summary

Risk probabilities and their interpretation will appear here after the run.

Run Monte Carlo to populate this section from the current shared scenario.

Committee Percentiles

Percentile interpretation and committee-facing cues will appear here after the run.

Run Monte Carlo to populate this section from the current shared scenario.

Distribution Charts

Review all four primary Monte Carlo distribution views together, using the latest successful run settings and returned sample arrays.

Run Monte Carlo to populate the available NPV and IRR histogram and cumulative distribution views.

Debug

Advanced / Technical Diagnostics

Collapsed by default

Model Validation / Self-Test

Not executed

Validation-only alignment check shared with audit readiness, not the live Monte Carlo result table.

Validation has not been executed in this session

Run validation to populate the shared self-test status used by Monte Carlo diagnostics and audit readiness.

Technical Run Path

Technical diagnostics stay here so the main Monte Carlo workflow remains focused on scenario context, results, and review-ready outputs.

POST /api/monte-carlo/runhttps://fscenario-api.onrender.com/api/monte-carlo/runScenario source: Scenario SetupSession source: n/aLatest Core reference: None

Request

Request Preview / Request Sent

Debug JSON
{
  "scenario": {
    "construction": {
      "capex_mode": "explicit_schedule"
    },
    "financing": {
      "capex_basis": "construction_total",
      "debt_enabled": false,
      "debt_type": "level",
      "payments_per_year": 12
    },
    "meta": {
      "source": "manual"
    },
    "operations": {},
    "risk": {},
    "timeline": {
      "frequency": "monthly"
    }
  },
  "settings": {
    "compounding": "discrete_annual",
    "payments_per_year": 12,
    "timing": "end"
  },
  "mc_config": {
    "distribution": "normal_pct",
    "hurdle_rate": 0.1,
    "n_sims": 30,
    "sample_size": 25,
    "seed": 7,
    "variation": 0.1,
    "drivers": {
      "revenue_base_annual": {
        "enabled": true
      },
      "opex_base_annual": {
        "enabled": true
      },
      "total_capex": {
        "enabled": true
      },
      "salvage_value": {
        "enabled": true
      },
      "discount_rate": {
        "enabled": true
      },
      "construction_duration": {
        "enabled": true
      }
    }
  },
  "decision_config": {
    "hurdle_rate": 0.1,
    "irr_basis": "equity",
    "npv_basis": "project"
  },
  "debug_context": {
    "client_name": "frontend_next",
    "request_id": "mc-1782450956891",
    "source": "canonical_scenario_setup"
  }
}